diff --git a/net/netfilter/nf_conncount.c b/net/netfilter/nf_conncount.c
index dd67004a5cc0..91582069f6d2 100644
--- a/net/netfilter/nf_conncount.c
+++ b/net/netfilter/nf_conncount.c
@@ -183,17 +183,16 @@ static int __nf_conncount_add(struct net *net,
 		return -ENOENT;
 
 	if (ct && nf_ct_is_confirmed(ct)) {
-		/* local connections are confirmed in postrouting so confirmation
-		 * might have happened before hitting connlimit
+		/* Connection is confirmed but might still be in the setup phase.
+		 * Only skip the tracking if it is fully assured. This guarantees
+		 * that setup packets or retransmissions are properly counted and
+		 * deduplicated.
 		 */
-		if (skb->skb_iif != LOOPBACK_IFINDEX) {
+		if (test_bit(IPS_ASSURED_BIT, &ct->status)) {
 			err = -EEXIST;
 			goto out_put;
 		}
 
-		/* this is likely a local connection, skip optimization to avoid
-		 * adding duplicates from a 'packet train'
-		 */
 		goto check_connections;
 	}